A Little Moonshine

I read with fascination this article on using analytics to make predictions and prescriptions regarding your child's career. Both words - prediction and prescription make me very nervous. The premise of the product IBM India's research lab is building is summed up thusly:

“As a student go through courses, every test is recorded electronically (in fact, it is done in most of the US schools). With this kind of data, we can build models of students and cluster them to categories based on some analytics. So we can say, this student is similar to this cluster of people and predict how he can perform,” 

I thought it may be interesting to apply this line to reasoning to a small cohort - the forty some kids that I grew up with taking many, many tests along the way. I have data points for about forty students and eight subjects for say about seven years - several tests at a year for all of these kids. 

Of course, the numbers will not be terribly accurate but the kids are easy enough to cluster in three broad categories - top, middle and bottom of the class in aggregate and by subject. My little group showed remarkable consistency in their test performances from middle school through high school. There was some movement between back and forth between the middle and top of the class. Not much changed at the bottom. Similarly, folks at the very top of the class remained there.

Two decades after taking our last tests seems like a good time to take stock of where we all are. The bottom of the class has done extremely well almost without exception. The middle of the class has remained there - in the middle. The top of the class has beat expectations too but in a negative way. None in that group have realized their assumed "potential" to succeed. I can't wait to find out if the predictive model they build will prove what history has for my tiny sample - that test scores are the worst way to gauge aptitude, interest, motivation or potential to succeed; personality and work ethic are the two big drivers for success that are not easily testable.

Being that this work is taking place in India where astrology has been part of the cultural fabric for thousands of years, maybe they should throw planetary positions in the mix - just for fun. In India it would be a crowd-pleaser. We like to believe that the stars and planets hold secrets and portents for our future, we generally like and trust math, test taking is in our DNA - so we have a winning combination here for believer and skeptic alike. Car insurance has been mixed with zodiac signs in the past, so why leave out education specially when the action is taking place in India ?

Yahoo Watching

I am not a big Yahoo user but have been following the site and the news about Yahoo since Marissa Mayer took over. Mainly I am curious about how this thing will end up under her stewardship and when the souring happens  how the blame will be apportioned. The Tumblr deal did not make a lot of sense - instead of clarifying a brand which is already all over the map, Mayer chose to thrown something new in the mix. I tend to agree with Owen Thomas on why this is a mistake. 

If teens are turning away from Facebook because they want to get away from their parents, any kind of Yahoo-fication of Tumblr will not go over well with this population. Yet letting Tumblr function autonomously making the change of guard seamless to its user population would not meet Yahoo's goals. Yahoo is way more old school than Facebook and ever so uncool. The clutter on the landing page is out of control and has a disturbing Geocities vibe about it. It makes me want to run right away to some place quieter where the content has some focus.  I love Hulu and have been a user from their earliest days. Specially sad to see Yahoo bidding to acquire it as well. Still remember the time when I had to give up my favorite bookmarking site del.icio.us and how Yahoo took my some thousand Flickr images hostage and would only let me see a few for free - so many bad memories. It's good to see the sadness is shared

Sad but true: there’s a long history of Yahoo making companies it buys uncool, rather than acquisitions making Yahoo cool.

Branding

Reading about the purveyors emotional commerce and the brands that fit the bill - had to check out the True&Co quiz to see if it would make me feel warm and fuzzy like the author said it would. Maybe I am not the target customer segment or age group because I was not able to see anything more than the obvious cute factor. Conversion by way of registration to the site certainly did not happen. I had heard about the Abercrombie business from J a few days ago - her friends have been talking about how distasteful it was for the CEO to say that he does not cater to uncool kids. It is ironic that the so called uncool have pretty strong emotions about the brand that rejects them. 

The expert opinion on the comments made by Jefferies is a little at odds with what I have heard from the trenches - namely J. I asked her if her friends were offended enough to stop wearing the brand and she asked "If the CEO of Apple said something nasty would you stop using the iPhone ?" and I had to say no I would not. J clarified that they would buy because the product was good even if the CEO had said some things that they did not like. Another instance of emotional commerce missing the mark by a little bit.

But if a brand provokes a groundswell of anger and resentment then consumers may make real time boycott decisions about the contents of their shopping cart.

Waze

Reading this story prompted me to download Waze and check it out. We have a long drive coming up this weekend and I am looking forward to using it.  I was pleasantly surprised to see the density of social activity in my sleepy little neck of the woods. Like the author says "I didn't think enough people would take the time to enter information about things like traffic or speed traps into Waze to make it useful, but I was wrong."

There were nearly a hundred different reports on traffic, police, closure and more. I would not need to look at Yelp while driving, it comes integrated with a look-up for restaurants in your location or along your route. I love how well system has been augmented with social to create a product that packs so much usefulness in a very compact format. The possibilities for mashups are only limited by the imagination. From retailers being able to push real time offers to someone headed in the direction of their store, to making connections between people and people  or people and services that begin to make sense only when the two are in each other's vicinity. 

Instead for putting out an ad on Craigslist, a plumber may push out a notification of his availability and his current route and let those in need of his services, pick it up and connect in real time. There is something fascinating about the idea of making such deliberate connections and creating unexpected opportunities.

Per my earlier rant about Google's asinine decision to kill Reader, I am in complete agreement with the author's conclusion "There’s no sign that Google has shown an interest in acquiring Waze, but I think the company would be stupid not to at least consider trumping Facebook’s offer. It could wind up losing its way, and a bunch of mobile users to boot." It would be sad though if Facebook acquires Waze and turns it into something completely unrecognizable from its current, wonderful state or worse - kills it.

Excuses

Client I was meeting with today is in his late 50s and the father of a college senior. He was bemoaning the state of math education in grade school and beyond and how in his field of work, there is almost no local talent to be found. The issue of education being dumbed down to cater to the lowest common denominator came up and how his son did not study Algebra until 9th grade and struggled in physics because calculus was taught way too late. He talked about how both teachers and students were held to a much higher standard back in his day. It was interesting to read yet another excuse for not challenging kids more in school - they are too sleep deprived to use their brains. 

Closer home, J tells me how popularity in middle school is directly proportional to athletic ability. Interestingly though, the standard of competition in athletics is not translated to academics or other extra curricular activities. So, whereas the losing team does not get awarded a trophy, kids with straight As are bracketed together with the Bs and all Bs and only one C in a comprehensive Honor Roll list. There is no distinction made between these three sets of kids who in the least have applied very different degrees of effort to achieve what they have. Even if we wanted to completely discount innate ability, it seems fair to recognize the highest degree of effort. Since when did hard-work and motivation to succeed become things to de-recognize ?  The rationale for this strange Honor Roll system is to make sure no one is discouraged and completely gives up. In a sense the school system is conveying to the kids that they will not be able to handle in the classroom what they are able to handle out in the sports field. I find this whole thought process deeply troubling and incoherent. 

J makes snide remarks about she just needs to show up and be breathing and that will be enough to make the Honor Roll in her school. Since the school is not able to provide incentives for her to do well, I have tried to create artificial ones to keep her motivated and engaged. Mostly my strategies have failed resoundingly. To keep things interesting for herself, J has decided to focus most of her energy on her Art grade because it is difficult to maintain an A given the exceptionally high bar in that class and the very subjective nature of the grading process. It is troubling for me to see how the system's excuses for not demanding more from kids (and rewarding them for their effort) is hurting my child.

Forcing Social Consumption

Google has made disappointing its customers a matter of routine. I have previously written on this blog about how their search is not serving me or my clients well. Now they have gone and decided to kill their one web asset that actually made a lot of sense - Google Reader. I spend a disproportionate amount of my time on Google Reader every day. While it may not be perfect, it did meet my needs for many years and I had grown attached to it. Just like that they served an interstitial to let me know that I would lose Google Reader on July 1 2013.

At what point does a company grow too big to remain relevant, too big to realize that despotism is not the way to keep your customers around - that comes a point when enough stupid decisions have been made for people to walk away for good. Have there not been enough failures in the last fifteen years to learn lessons from ?

I have to believe the reason they are choosing to kill Google Reader is because the user population was not willing to bite the social media baits and hooks that Google tried to dangle around them. Based on this decision by Google, it appears that passive consumption of media will continue to be penalized heavily. You either hop on the social media bandwagon or are left out in the cold.

I have imported my feeds to The Old Reader - hopefully they don't up becoming the kind of problem they helped solve.

Happy Place

School opened late this morning because of a snow storm yesterday. It was still several inches high on the driveway as J stood there waiting for the school bus. Unlike other days, when I wait by the front door to see her get into the bus, I was upstairs by the window keep an eye on her as I got ready for work. At some point, I caught the sound of J singing to herself as she kicked the snow around. The sound of her voice intermingling with the chirping birds creating a moment of perfection. She being herself, unaware of my presence or of the magic she had helped make. I had to share what I had experienced with the one who would feel it just like I did - enjoy my happy place with me.

Silver Bullet

For the past few weeks I have been working with a client to solve a losely defined problem. As is often the case, the symptoms of process and technology malaises manifest themseleves in deeply uncomfortable ways. What is seen to be "the problem" is  not what needs solving - but that is a difficult message to communicate and have understood. What we have here is a customer experience (and perception) issue. The operations folk are following the playbook faithfully and for the most part doing a good job.

This is a data driven organization and by most measures doing very well. And yet there is this pool of deeply unhappy customers that are making their displeasure known very vocally and attracting a lot of media attention in the process- somehow the data is not able to pin point the sources of their frustration. We get to hear from Big Data solution providers all the time - the sales people will work incredibly hard to demo what their product can do. Often I have wondered how it is that a solution so powerful cannot be truly demonstrated with my data and rather commonplace problems that I am helping to solve.

While many other have used the silver bullet to incredible advantage, I am still stuck doing things the old fashioned way - a chaotic mix of experience, intution and analysis. Many things about this article hit close to home for me.

The trick, as Morozov and Lanier remind us, is not to surrender our judgment to the deluge

Most of all, we have to know what we want to achieve and what we want big data to do. Otherwise, like the previous iterations of internet futurism, big data will remain a showy buzzword – full of sound and fury, signifying very little.

This artice gets it right to - why Big Data is not the whole story but being able to tell the story around the insights is what makes the difference.

The data needs to be transformed into bite-sized (pre-chewed, even) stories that can easily stick in the brains of your audience

Overshare

While parking outside the B&N in my neigborhood, the car next to me caught my attention. On the back seat window was pasted a 3-D ultrasound image in full color. I am assuming it is the baby they are going to have in a few months. So exposed and vulnerable floating in fluid, strung by a chord - the unborn child.

At what point did this most private and precious image that soon to be parents share with those closest to them (if that), become public property ? I felt a rush of sadness for this child that had not come into world. If they are on display on the car, they would most certainly be in social media as well - liked, shared, followed, plus oned and commented on. They have been established as an entity in the social network even before they could be born. Will their birth still be the big moment as it should be or would it become information fatigue by then ? 

Overcompensating

This article about A.A Milne's estrangement from his son is a cautionary note on the perils of being too perfect a parent. The simple beauty of Milne's stories revolving around Christopher Robin would suggest incredible harmony between father and child - the kind we may all aspire to have with our children. While the reason for the drift between the two is Christopher Robin turning "bitterly resentful" of his father's fame and living under his giant shadow, may not apply to most people, there may be lessons from Milne for the rest of us.

We could overcompensate for our failings by doing our equivalent of writing entire books with our child's stuffed animals as the cast of characters, placing them at the center of this created universe. Sometimes in our misguided quest for perfection we may make them deeply uncomfortable - maybe it is possible that they expect and accept us imperfect as we are. Maybe our flaws do not scar them as much as our overzealous efforts to do right by them.

In trying so desperately to rid ourselves of our flaws, we may pressure our children into following our own example - and hence the incredible burden of parental expectation. A good warning sign might be a child who like Christopher displays "no signs of any normal adolescent rebellion" . That may way well be the last chance a parent has to correct course - give up the quixotic quest for perfection, fail often and let the child breathe too.

End Point

The topic of online dating has inexhaustible potential. This article attempts to reach that elusive end point. In a sweeping commentary that touches on the socio-economics of online dating, the technology that enables it and what it means for the future of relationships, the author does not leave much out. However, he is not able to tie the many threads of this topic into a cohesive conclusion.

Early on, he talks about what online dating companies are trying to create, namely "the profusion of potential partners all in one convenient marketplace, a sort of Costco for the libido". And like a customer at Costco who may prefer it over multiple stops at locally owned stores and a farmer's market, the online dater would likely forego the traditional methods of dating and take the path of least resistance. Technology allows for mass personalization; to that end I get coupons in the mail from my nearest big box store that exactly meet my needs. They come in an envelope addressed to me and unlike the mass mailers they once sent out, every last offer is completely relevant to me.

This level of personalization, Horning argues is coming to the online dating world as well "Just as CafePress can sell you a customized T-Shirt, why shouldn’t OKCupid aspire to sell you a customized partner?" From my past experience and that of my friends who have been or currently are active in the online dating world, that goal is aspirational at best. Unlike a person's shopping habits, that can be read, measured and interpreted, their preferences for romantic partner cannot be so easily discerned. Often the person in question does not know, cannot describe what it takes to make them happy and indeed does not want to profiled and served a made to order partner. While OKCupid's analytic horsepower is impressive, it is a little disingenuous to pretend that it is possible to pair someone with a partner perfect for them - algorithmically.

There are many connections made between the traditional business and the online dating market place. Here is one I found interesting. Horning says: "Traditionally, businesses have thrived on artificial scarcity, even if the tendency of the system as a whole may be to arbitrage away such advantages." He ties the idea of artificial scarcity to female purity "In a sense, social mores and attitudes about female purity worked as DRM for dating, restricting supply to protect intimacy’s value." Unfortunately, Horning does not carry this idea forward into his subsequent arguments.

He quotes the Dan Slater, author of Love In The Time of Algorithms, as saying the dating companies “want satisfied daters. But they also spend their days focused on maximizing nonromantic metrics, such as ‘customer acquisition,’ ‘conversion rates,’ and ‘lifetime value.’ ” This reminded me of my friend S who has been dating for a couple of years now and would sooner take a break from dating when things become too complicated than try to settle. Most of her relationships span between one and six months. She is happy with her life as it is and could potentially be classified a "satisfied dater" who would help maximize all those "nonromantic metrics" Slater is referring to.

Mediocrity

A conversation I often have with J is about mediocrity - and how it can be a fair amount of effort to make it through life being mediocre. I encourage her to find her passion and work to excel in it - a much harder thing to do than being lulled into a false sense of comfort by natural abilities. Comes a time when coasting on innate talent will no longer be possible and if hardwork does not come naturally by then, things become difficult.

In my experience, mediocrity is the place where talent and passion meet lack of directed effort. So easy to assume when you have natural gifts, success will take care of itself and so often that turns out not to be the case. I had the privilege of growing up with a few precocious kids - they made everything the rest of us struggled with appear effortless. We were in awe of how they were able to make connections where we found none, ask questions that we would never know to ask and generally walk on water.

Yet some of the most successful among my childhood friends were considered the "average" kids. But what set them apart from the rest of the averages was their determination to succeed. They were not okay to remain mediocre and were willing to work their way out of that cohort - and so they did.

This very candid article about what it takes to be mediocre and is another way of thinking about it - though I am not sure I agree with the author's conclusion :

Being mediocre doesn’t mean you won’t change the world. It means being honest with yourself and the people around you. And being honest at every level is really the most effective habit of all if you want to have massive success

Post Dead

Each time I read about yet another new thing to turn a dead person's ashes into,  I wonder about the pace of innovation and what it is means for death itself. Right now, the dead have a dozen options. Depending on who is making the decisions, the dead may not be able to depart without drama  - have their ashes scattered the old fashioned way or be buried. 

Instead they may end up as a paper weight in their loved ones office or be hanging on their living room wall as a portrait - every idea involves loss of dignity. Imagine ending up on eBay, being bought and sold years after you are are dead, never having a final place of repose - something once considered the inalienable right of the dead. The premise of using cremains as medium is about preserving memory tangibly. Yet reducing a complex human life into a trivial, lifeless object, is possibly the worst way to do it. 

Tribal Project

Interesting article on single parenting and I specially liked this part about another kind of family in which to raise a child

My 8-year-old son and I live in a shared flat with three other adults, a journalist and two doctors. We are like a family, just that we haven chosen each other because we like each other rather than because we are connected by bloodline. My flatmates teach my son skills that I don't have: One plays chess with him, the other piano, the next one soccer. By law, I am a single mother. By life, my son is a tribal project of the modern kind.

Back when I was raising J alone, I would have loved an arrangement like that. I had some help from friends who stepped in when the could with skills they had to teach. The hardest thing about parenting alone is not knowing if you are making the right decisions and how some of them will impact the child over time. 

I have benefited from listening to DB's view of things even when I did not agree with him. His ideas have morphed my parenting style quite a bit in the last three years. I needed help with calibrating my reaction to the offense and the discipline to be consistent in what I communicated to J. Based in my experience, I am guessing this parent would have gained tremendously from having three other adults with different backgrounds and prespectives to help raise the child. Sometimes being in a "bad" situation can result is some amazingly positive outcomes.

Highlighted Flaws

Who knew mending broken things could be an art form. Looking at these pictures made me think about flaws and the act of highlighting them to stand out confidently; if that translates to things more intangible than pottery. In relationships, fracture points are often around flaws - the others' or your own. And each time there is an argument or misunderstanding, the fractures grow uglier and there is lesser incentive to mend because the end product will look so badly blemished. Comes a point when all is left is shards and emptiness.

The usual way to fix what is broken is focused on hiding or obscuring the flaws - with the best craftsmanship you could never tell it was once broken. The entire premise of The Golden Bowl,for instance, is based on what it means to have such a well hidden yet fatal flaw in a relationship. The equivalent of kintsugi may be to celebrate the flaws, find humor in them, call attention to their existence and work to fill in the gap with something bold and even outrageously out of character - like gold seams on pottery.