Alternate Analysis

Interesting Wired article on the indirect data points that tell a truer story of the current crisis.

Samir Madani is the founder of TankerTrackers, a company that leverages open source information to provide insights on the global crude oil industry to small traders. As the coronavirus pandemic unfolded, he has turned to an eclectic suite of sources to navigate the mayhem.

Combining data from vessel transponders with satellite images, he has periodically checked how many oil tankers are in anchorage in China, unable to deliver their cargo – an intimation both of how well China’s ports are functioning amid the pandemic, and of how well industrial production is keeping up.

This makes more sense than looking at the direct data of number of cases and mortality rates. There are too many holes there to see what is really going on. When I talk to my parents, I hear concerns about deliberate under-reporting by the government so as to not panic everyone. They don't believe the official numbers for India. Depending on the latest conspiracy theory floating around that one of their geriatric friends has shared with them, their level of FUD rises.

For instance, the level of Nitrogen dioxide (NO2) emissions, regularly posted on Nasa’s website, is a proxy for pretty much any post-industrial human activity.

The idea of looking at data that serves as proxy for actual human behavior is a sensible one - it eliminates the concerns of deliberate obfuscation. If all of this analysis points to the same conclusion of the situation then chances are it may be accurate.