When people in positions of power, authority and influence make off the cuff remarks, the consequences could be unpleasant. Its unclear what how the 50 vs 10 data point came to exist but it would be a shame if it morphed into a fact
President Biden recently made the extraordinary claim that, largely due to advancements in artificial intelligence (AI), “we’ll see more technological change in the next 10 years than we’ve seen in the last 50 years and maybe even beyond that.” If AI could deliver such progress, it would represent an incredible advancement in human progress, and policymakers should do everything in their power to realize its potential. But even with AI’s dizzying possibilities, it is highly unlikely that technological advancements in the next decade will outpace the achievements of the past five decades given the extent of innovation in this timeframe. This matters because if the assumption is that robust innovation is on autopilot, then efforts to promote innovation can slacken.
I was chatting with a kid still in college a couple of days ago to get her perspective on AI and what it means to be a poet or quant these days for a young person like herself. She said it was more imperative than ever to do one's best work poet or quant and not get reliant on AI as a crutch, I tend to agree that quality of mediocre work will likely get elevated a bit so a person wishing to be lazy will be able to do so without too much trouble but the highest quality work will still need something special only a human can bring as long as they don't get mentally lazy. In this kid's mind AI was meant to help her mediocre efforts to look a bit shinier but no replacement for her best work - she expected to strive hard on those to make it count. I have to say I found some inspiration in that perspective myself. With statements like that of the President, it is very well possible that there will be an illusion that innovation no longer needs any feed or care, it will just happen because AI exists as a crutch and exoskeleton - that we are automatically set up for greatness.
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