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Natural Experiments

Most of last year felt like living in a cauldron of natural experiments thanks to the conditions created by the pandemic and the opportunities continue to be rife. Reading this LSE professor's list of natural experiments was interesting in that context. The one about air quality improvement and birth weights of newborns in Beijing before and after the Olympics stood out for me. 

The authors used this sudden reduction in pollution to compare its effects on the weight of 83,672 babies born in four districts of Beijing during the Olympics (August 8 – September 24) against the weight of babies born during the same period in 2007 and 2009. They found that the babies born in 2008 were 23 grams (0.05 pounds) heavier on average, suggesting that air pollution does interfere with fetal development.

For the past year, whenever I see a toddler I try my best to smile at them through my mask. Make extra effort so they can see the expression of my eyes and know that I am smiling at them. For the most part they stare at me bewildered. I cannot remember any one of them trying to smile back of say anything to me. Before the pandemic, it used to be very different. They would almost always smile back, the chattier ones try to converse. 

The parent or adult with them would join in and we would exchange pleasantries and be on our way - this is how the world is supposed to work. When J was a toddler strangers would take a minute to smile at her, say a few words to both of us. It is one of the joys going out into the world as a new parent - this particular limelight is very short-lived. Missing that element of social interaction for the better part of a toddler's life sets up a sad natural experiment too.

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