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Seeing Data

I am not sure what to make of this piece of analysis that got folks buzzing on LinkedIn (that's where I first saw it). The data used for the story is here and the analysis is a classic case of manufacturing insight. The Axios story claims to have spotted a trend with CD sales based on the numbers in that industry report. There are two take-aways from the author

  • CD sales grew to $584.2 million nationally last year, up more than $100 million from 2020. By comparison, 2021 vinyl sales increased to $1 billion annually, up from $643.9 million
  • And CD Sales increased for the first time since 2004
The graph shows a decline percent of CD sales from 2020 to 2021. It went from 4.0% to 3.9%. The other data point that the author ignores in the analysis is the huge spike in total revenues across all categories from 2020 to 2021 - the rising tide lifted all boats and that contributed to the higher revenue from CD sales despite the drop in % of the total revenue contribution relative to total. The same data set shows LP sales volumes growing year after year 28.3% in 2020 compared to prior year and 67.3% in 2021 compared to prior year but trend is not a decade long explosion as the story claims either. There was a 12.3% decline in 2013. 

Once someone (with certain degree of credibility) throws out a manufactured insight supported by data that checks out at first blush, that insight becomes reality. In a time of influencer marketing, it only needs to be picked up and a few more folks with some credibility of their own to this reality to triggers actions. It will be interesting to see who bites on this one and starts to build a business around CDs. Would be best to make a go of it before the 2022 numbers are out. 

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